Strategy. Innovation. Brand.
Joe Biden and Me
Hey buddy! How ya been?
I was teaching class last night so I missed the Biden-Ryan debate. It sounded like a doozy. Though I missed the fireworks, I did follow it on Intrade, the predictions market. Last week, before the Obama-Romney debate, Intrade predicted a 71% chance that Obama would be re-elected. During that first debate, the line fell to 66%, a clear indication that Romney was mopping up. Since then, the line on Obama fell gradually. Just before last night’s debate, Intrade predicted a 61% chance of re-election. I checked this morning and the line on Obama had inched up to 63%. So, it seems that Biden did what he needed to do — stop the “bed-wetting” and rally the base.
As it happens, Joe Biden and I have a connection. We both studied political science at the Univeristy of Delaware. Joe was a few years ahead of me; I knew of him though we didn’t travel in the same circles. I was a campus radical and he was more mainstream. He actually got a haircut from time to time.
At graduation, our paths diverged. He went to law school for three years and studied the finer points of the legal system. I went to Ecuador for three years and studied the finer points of Latin American politics.
Last year, our paths crossed in an odd way. At a cocktail party, I bumped into one of my favorite political science professors from Delaware. More than 30 years have passed since I took his class, but I remember it vividly. I complimented my old professor and told him how inspirational his class had been. He accepted my compliments and then asked:
Professor: “What grade did you get in the class?”
Me: “I was really motivated. I got an A.”
Professor (smiling): “Just so you know, Joe Biden got a C.”
So there you have it. If I had gone to law school, I could have been the veep. I may have missed that opportunity but I’m still hoping to be appointed ambassador to Ecuador. I could do some good there. Maybe we should start a social media campaign to get me appointed. As Joe would say, “Whaddya think?”
Persuasion: Ten Years and A Bag of Bagels
Still fresh after ten years.
As you prepare your persuasive presentations, you’ll probably use a lot of facts and data. You’ll want to marshall your evidence and create a powerful, logical, irrefutable argument. The trouble is, your audience will almost certainly forget your facts and data soon after you finish your presentation. What they’ll remember is the emotion.
Emotion is the basis of trust and trust is the basis of persuasion. If your audience trusts you, your arguments will be more persuasive. People remember their emotions much longer than they remember facts and data. If they trust you, they’ll probably continue to trust you. If they don’t trust you, they won’t change their minds unless you make a significant (and highly visible) change.
In the Persuasive Communication series, I focus mainly on what happens during your persuasive presentation. But what happens before and after can be equally important. Long before your presentation, you can build a sense of trust with your audience that will make your presentation much more persuasive. In fact, as you’ll see in the video, you can start the process years ahead of time. All it takes is a bag of bagels.
Redundancy Is Not a Sin
I talked to a CEO recently who was working on changing his company’s culture to make it more open to new ideas. I asked him how his communication campaign was going. He said, “Well, I met with all our managers last week and told them how important this is.” I congratulated him and asked what the next steps would be. He said he wasn’t sure but he assumed that the managers would deliver the message to their employees and then “we can get on with it”. (I’m oversimplifying here — but not by much).
When you fix a broken pipe, you assume that it will stay fixed — at least for a while. We often assume the same is true about delivering a message. “I told them what they need to do so I assume that they’re fixing the problem.” Unfortunately, it’s not so easy. The message could get garbled along the way. It could be misunderstood. It could meet with resistance. “Don’t pay attention to that. They’ll change their mind before long”.
To ensure that your message gets through, you’ll need to repeat it. Keep the message consistent — though you may want to change the words from time to time to keep it fresh. Repetition is important in all situations but it’s critical when your organization is under stress. By repeating your message, you’ll ensure that it gets through and you’ll let employees know that you’re not about to change your mind.
Consider how often you tell your spouse that you love him or her. Consider how many ways you express that love — the message remains the same though the words may differ. You need to do something similar for your colleagues and employees. Now watch the video for a good joke.
Barry and Mitt — Who Won?
How do you like me now?
Though nobody landed a knockout blow in tonight’s debate, Mitt Romney did exactly what he wanted to do: position himself as a legitimate alternative to the president. Romney came across not as some right-wing crank but as a thoughtful, intelligent candidate who is reasonably articulate. Surprisingly, Romney actually seemed more human than President Obama who came across as wonkish and overly abstract. Obama looked rusty to say the least.
I expected the President to play defense but he seemed downright tentative at times. His body language suggested that he really didn’t want to be there. On the split screen, he rarely looked at Romney. He also had many more verbal tics than Romney — more hemming and hawing and umms. He also said “I tried” far more often than necessary. “I tried to do this”, “I tried to do that”. It seems to me that the President of the United States should say “I did” more than “I tried”. He seemed apologetic rather than confident.
As several commentators have mentioned, this was a “wonkfest”. The satirist, Andy Borowitz, suggested that we join him in watching the Weather Channel — much more interesting. Twitter lit up with discussion about whether Romney would really kill Big Bird. Twitter was almost universal in criticizing Jim Lehrer. More than one Twitter commentator asked if he was a replacement ref.
I found Intrade much more interesting to follow than Twitter. The last time I wrote about Intrade (back in July) the prediction market gave Obama a 56.2% chance of being re-elected. Since the conventions and various mis-steps by Romney, the market has trended toward Obama. Last week, Intrade betting predicted an almost 80% chance of Obama winning. The line started to drift back during the week and was in the low 70’s when the debate started. As the debate got under way, Obama’s stock started to fall and stayed down. I checked a few moments ago and Obama’s chances had dropped to about 66% — down almost 6% for the day. Clearly, the prediction markets think Romney won the debate though they’re still saying that Obama has a 2/3 chance of being re-elected. I’m sure Obama will be sharper in the next two debates but Romney has shifted the dynamic and given his campaign a lift. Now the race is on.
Barry and Mitt: Body Language
Read my hips.
I spend a lot of time studying rhetoric and the logic of giving a persuasive presentation. Many of my posts on this website deal with the content and organization of a good speech. I’ve written a bit about body language (here) and I can usually help a speaker feel comfortable in front of an audience. (That’s well over half the battle).
Today, however, let’s learn from the experts: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The New York Times has an excellent article, including interactive graphics, on gestures and movements that these orators make to emphasize points and to gain agreement with the audience. They both appear to be masters of the art — so take a peek here.
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