Strategy. Innovation. Brand.
Deciding Decisively
I want more options.
Last week. I wrote about Chip Heath’s presentation skills. Today, let’s talk about his cognitive skills. Chip, with his brother Dan, has written three books: Switch, Made to Stick, and Decisive.
I’ve written about Decisive before and I expect to write about it again. Today, I’ll give an overview of the four major parts of the Decisive paradigm. I hope this will be useful in itself and it should also serve to introduce future articles that delve more deeply into each of the four elements.
Heath suggests that the path to better decision making is summarized in a simple acronym: WRAP. Here’s a thumbnail description of each.
Widen Your Options – too often, our decisions come in the form of “whether or not”. For instance: “We need to decide whether or not we’re going to acquire Company Z.” Much better to say, “What’s the best way to invest our capital to increase our market share?” Heath reports on one study that suggests that multiple-choice decisions are six times more likely to result in good decisions than are whether-or-not decisions. (This is very similar to Paul Nutt’s concept of premature commitment or to a doctor’s narrow framing based on your medical record.)
Reality-test Your Assumptions – I’ve written about confirmation bias before; Heath says that it’s much more pervasive in business than we might realize. The boss wants to do something, so all of us underlings look for evidence that she’s right. Moral: don’t surround yourself with yes-people. Before making a big decision, hold a trial with two well-prepared groups arguing the pros and cons. Also, remember the base rates. If nine out of ten start-ups fail, there’s a 90% chance that your start-up will fail. Really, there is – you can learn more here.
Attain Distance Before Deciding – My Mom used to say, “It’s easier to avoid temptation than to resist it.” In essence, that’s Heath’s advice, too. Making a big decision stirs up emotions ranging from fear to greed and most everything in between. So, get some distance. Time can be a form of distance; putting off a decision may help you think more clearly. (But not always). You can also ask yourself a simple question: “If my best friend asked for my advice in a similar situation, what would I say?”
Prepare to Be Wrong – when I climbed in the Andes, my buddies and I would often create a go/no go decision like this: “If we don’t reach such-and-such point by such-and-such time, we need to abandon the climb and return to camp.” Heath calls these tripwires. They’re agreed upon milestones or events that will jolt us out of autopilot. Without tripwires, we may just go merrily on our way, assuming that our original decision was correct. Tripwires help us focus on unfolding events and take corrective action.
Is that all there is to decision making? Not at all, Heath tells some great stories along the way and I’ll write about them in the future. For today, however, that about WRAPs it up.
My Klout Is Growing
I’m happy to report that my Klout has grown 430% since I first began monitoring it in October 2011. Clearly, I’m an influential guy.
Klout is an application that purports to measure how influential I am in the world of social media. It’s based on the two-step theory of mass communication. In step one, a mass marketing campaign influences a relatively small number of people. Let’s call them the target audience. In step two, members of the target audience reach out to their social circles and influence them.
Let’s say you’re trying to recruit volunteers to work for a political party. You launch a massive advertising campaign. A lot of people see the campaign but only a few are moved to action. These people, however, through their web of friendships and acquaintances, can move a much larger number of people.
Unfortunately, you pay for the total number of people who see the campaign, not the (much smaller) number of influential people. Wouldn’t it be nice if you only paid for reaching influential people? The question is: how do you find them?
That’s where Klout comes in. Klout measures my impact in social media. It tracks what I do on Twitter, Facebook, Google +, LinkedIn, and a few others. It notes how many followers and friends I have. It also tracks my impact. It’s good to have a large number of followers and friends. It’s even better when those followers “like” my posts, forward my articles, and re-tweet my tweets.
The result of all this counting and measuring is a Klout score that ranges between zero and 100. The higher the score, the more influential you are. The higher the score, the more valuable you are to advertisers.
Remember that we’re talking about social media here – not influence in the real world. Thus, it’s not too surprising that Justin Bieber’s Klout score is 100 whereas Barack Obama’s is 88. President Obama can move people. Bieber can move merchandise.
Klout doesn’t “sell” high scoring individuals to advertisers. It’s a bit more subtle. It uses “perks” to attract people to sign up and to link them marketers.
When I first registered with Klout, my score was 10. That’s pathetic and no advertiser wanted to connect with me. As I’ve built my social media empire, my Klout score has risen to a much more respectable 53.
Now advertisers are interested in me. They want to give me “perks” that will keep their products at the top of my mind. In fact, I just cashed in a perk and received a free subscription to Red Bulletin, a splashy magazine published by the energy drink, Red Bull.
The makers of Red Bull seem to believe that, if I read Red Bulletin, I will exercise my massive influence and cause my circle of social media friends to drink more Red Bull. I’m not sure that’s going to happen. By and large, the people I influence are just not in the Red Bull demographic. Perhaps the makers of Geritol would be better served by “perking” me.
I’m going to keep track of my Klout score largely because I use it in my marketing classes. I’ll report on it every now and then. I hope you’ll help me keep my Klout score high by “liking” my posts and re-tweeting my tweets. Of course, you could also buy some Red Bull.
Self-Aware Marketing Engines
Suellen recently bought a pair of eyeglasses from Warby Parker, the online retailer. To get an idea of how they would look, she uploaded a picture of herself and tried the glasses on virtually. She “tried on” several models, picked the most flattering one, ordered it, and received it within a couple of days.
Suellen’s glasses are stylish but dumb. They don’t know what they are, where they came from, or how they got to Suellen. Within five years, I suspect that products from Warby Parker (and similar purveyors) will not only be stylish but also self-aware. In fact, let’s call them Self-Aware Marketing Engines or SAMEs.
A Self-Aware Marketing Engine knows what it is and how to sell. An embedded chip carries its identity. A SAME knows:
- What it is – the chip carries information on model number, date of manufacture, serial number, etc.
- Who owns it – Suellen’s Warby Parkers will know her name and contact details and perhaps other things such as her Facebook address, Klout score, birthday, maybe even her husband’s name and contact details.
- How to buy – the chip carries information on how to order similar products.
- How to talk to other devices – probably using Near Field Communications (NFC).
Essentially, SAMEs automate the word-of-mouth process. Let’s say that Suellen’s girlfriend, Laurie, sees the glasses and admires them. Laurie taps her NFC-enabled smart phone on the glasses and learns how she can buy similar glasses and what they cost. She also learns she can upload a photo of herself to see how the glasses look on her.
Laurie uploads a picture to the Warby Parker website and “tries on” various models. The website can tell that Laurie’s visit resulted from Suellen’s influence. It sends Suellen a thank-you note and perhaps a small discount on her next purchase.
Laurie finds three models that she really likes but can’t decide which one to buy. Warby Parker’s website asks how it can help. Laurie explains her dilemma. The website has a solution. With Laurie’s permission, the website loads images of her wearing each of the three different styles to Laurie’s Facebook page. It also sends a “Which style do you like best?” query to all of Laurie’s Facebook friends. It also links to Suellen’s Facebook page so she can follow (and influence) the process.
Laurie waits a day and counts the votes, but then gets distracted by a visit from her friend, Mary Kay. The Warby Parker website notes that nothing has happened for a few days and sends Laurie an e-mail with a small incentive to order soon.
With Mary Kay’s help, Laurie decides to order the Hippie @ Sixty frames (Model 6060/CBGB). Warby Parker’s factory encodes Laurie’s information in the frames – creating another Self-Aware Marketing Engine – and sends them to her. With Laurie’s permission, it also posts the “winning” selection to Laurie’s Facebook page. It also notes that Suellen has influenced the sale and sends her another thank-you note and a larger discount on her next purchase.
Laurie perceives that she has bought some stylish frames. Warby Parker perceives that they’ve sold a Self-Aware Marketing Engine that will generate more sales in the future. For Laurie, it’s a solution to her eye care needs. For Warby Parker, it’s the gift that goes on giving.
Could it happen? Devices are getting smarter all the time. Many devices today are already aware of their own location and orientation (which way they’re pointed). Why not incorporate additional self-awareness that enables products to sell more products? It will happen soon. The only question is who will get there first.
(By the way, though I took a different angle, much of the inspiration for this post came from an article in the April issue of the McKinsey Quarterly: “The Coming Era of ‘On-Demand’ Marketing“)
May I Shine A Light In Your Ear?
Shine a light on me
Straight from the researchers at Oulu Univeristy in Finland, here’s a little device to lift your mood this weekend: the Valkee. Though it looks like an early model iPod, complete with ear buds, the Valkee doesn’t play music. Rather, the buds shine bright lights into your ears.
We all know that our eyes are sensitive to light. The Oulu researchers claim that the brain is, too. Further, our ear canals are the most direct path ways to get light to the brain and cheer it up a bit. The Ouluvians claim that wearing the device 8 to 12 minutes per day can significantly reduce the occurrence of Seasonal Affective Disorder, the depression that strikes people in the dark days of winter.
I’m a pretty happy guy right now, perhaps because it’s spring time but if I’m feeling SAD next winter, I’ll be sure to order one. This is probably the right time for our friends in the southern hemisphere to buy one. If you do, let me know if it lightens your day.
Presenting Decisively
The other day, Suellen and I saw Chip Heath give a presentation on the key messages of his new book, Decisive. Heath is on tour to promote the book and Denver was a well-promoted stop along the way.
I’ve written about the book in recent weeks and plan to write more in the near future. It’s a simple, clear synopsis of recent research on decision-making.
Today, however, I want to focus on Heath’s presentation style – he reminded me of many lessons I’ve learned in public speaking. Here’s a summary.
Establish rapport and credibility – a large audience turned up in Denver and Heath commented on it immediately, saying, “It’s clear that the people of Denver are intellectually curious. In fact, I’d say that they’re four times more curious than people in Austin and eight times more than people in Los Angeles.” It was funny but it was also a nice compliment. We loved him right away. Best of all, it wasn’t canned.
Slides as hooks not as script – Heath used a lot of slides. He advanced to new slides regularly; no slide stayed up for more than a minute or two. Each time he advanced, the audience “refreshed”. Most of his slides had fewer than ten words on them. Many had only an image. Heath told the story; the slides illustrated it. The text on the slides helped you remember the key points; they didn’t steal Heath’s thunder.
Tell a story, not an abstraction – Heath told a lot of good stories about decisions gone right and gone wrong. They were stories about flesh-and-blood people whose experiences illustrated key ideas about decision making. Every now and then, he would state an abstraction to summarize a point. He never said, “the moral of the story is…” but he could have.
Humor — he wasn’t rolling-in-the-aisle funny, but he had a dry, wry sense of humor that helped hold our attention. We paid attention partially because we didn’t want to miss a laugh line.
Parallel construction – Heath’s book has four major messages – the WRAP process. Heath covered all four and each section was structured in exactly the same way. We always knew exactly where we were in the narrative. We never got lost.
Finish early – Heath finished about ten minutes ahead of schedule (at least, ahead of the schedule that I had in mind). Giving 500 busy people ten minutes of their life back is a nice contribution to our mental welfare. We appreciated it.
Practice, practice, practice – it was clear that Heath was a polished presenter and that he had given this presentation before. That didn’t make it boring. Rather, we concluded that he respected us enough to make good use of our time. If he respects us, we can respect him.
My Social Media
